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The Roots of Victory

Strategy Bridge

Our fourth quarterly series for 2021 begins with Sir Michael Howard's observation that the "roots of victory and defeat often have to be sought far from the battlefield." We have selected a wide-ranging collection of responses to flesh out this remark. We hope you enjoy reading them over the coming days as much as we have.

In the first tranche of articles, our contributors look to economic and agricultural dominance as lenses through which to view the contest between the U.S. and China far from the battlefield. David Day opens a new flank, arguing that "financial and economic markets present an unusual battlefield as states attempt to gain influence on the geopolitical stage." Joshua Ratta then offers a different perspective, epitomized by his quote from the U.S Department of Agriculture: “Food will win the war and write the peace.” Perhaps a sound strategy necessitates consideration of economic and agricultural issues...among others. 

Juliet O'Brien then turns our call for submissions on its head, looking not just at victory but also at stalemate, examining the situation in Western Sahara. Her observation that the roots of this stalemate are found in the "lack of international political will toward mediation" offers a pivot to another area where political will and relationships might prove important as roots of victory. Vasabjit Banerjee and Charlie Thomas suggest facilitating a "constructive partnership" between the U.S. and South Africa as a fruitful strategy. Through these two articles, the continent of Africa receives a welcome emphasis too little seen.

The next several articles also deal with relationships from a number of perspectives. First, the framing of great power competition from the perspective of the U.S. alone can be problematic, and Joe Wheatley provides an alternative perspective on AUKUS, focusing on the Australian view and arguing the "significance and true value of AUKUS is in the message it sends rather than the capability it will deliver." This sets up a further shift to the perspective of those nations caught up in the competition between the U.S. and China. Andrew Mueller argues the "U.S. must resist the urge to focus predominantly on China itself, and, in the manner of FM 3-24, give attention to the third parties who are caught up in the two states’ political struggle." In this vein, the most important U.S. military service—and the only one to receive a dedicated article in the series—may be the Coast Guard. James Martin and Jasper Campbell assert the "U.S. Coast Guard, blurring diplomatic and military lanes of the United States’ national power projection apparatus, is the ideal vessel for engaging China in non-competitive spheres." Similarly, Kevin Bilms returns us to land and argues special forces must be reinvigorated with "a strategic focus that characterized special operators’ past deployments." In other words, special forces' recent trajectory has resulted in an overemphasis on battle-centric skills even as the strengths that distinguished it from conventional forces have attenuated.

From there, we turn to understanding the dynamics of civil-military relationships in the waging of wars. Luke Encarnation dissects how over the span of a decade "India waged three conventional conflicts against peer competitors with radically divergent results," which he explains in large part through shifts in civil-military relations. In this line of argument, Daniel Rust provocatively explores the ethical foundations of U.S. society and how it shapes decisions to wage war, considering his own experience in making the decision to serve and some of the decisions the U.S. military services have made. Finally, we explore the roots of digital calculations in peacetime that may shape the battlefields of the future with Matei Sorin's "The Law of Robotic Warfare."

As we wrap up this transformative year on The Strategy Bridge, we are grateful for each and every submission and for each and every member of our community. We have relished the creative and diverse approaches to answering our calls for submissions throughout 2021, and we look forward to more engagement with our community—with you—in the coming year.

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Header Image: Victory Column, Berlin, March, 2020 (Goke Osaba).