President Putin made three foundational assumptions in launching his war against Ukraine that should have been correct but were not. First, Putin assumed the invasion of Ukraine would be a quick and easy fight. Second, he assumed the world would denounce the invasion but tacitly allow it. Third, Putin assumed the war would deter NATO expansion.
Ethiopia provides a unique opportunity to strengthen and encourage regional institutions to act as arbiters in parallel with U.S. aims and strategic interests. Ultimately, a regional approach gives policymakers greater global flexibility to respond to the persistent challenges threatening U.S. interests in Africa while avoiding the pitfalls of unilateral engagement.
Faced with staggering levels of global hunger, the transportation, aid, and military communities need to evaluate the best use of a limited budget. It should not continue funding largely obsolete ships. Instead, it should be used to feed the hungry and use soft power to diffuse conflict before it occurs. Of course, policy is not limited to black and white binaries, and amending aid disbursement procedures will not come without some negative ramifications. However, eliminating cargo preference will almost invariably do more good than harm. Lives saved, people fed, and conflict assuaged, at little cost to maritime security.
Understanding how foreign assistance might enable state actors to maintain power in ways that violate the values America espouses in its national policy documents is key to understanding the nature of power in a recipient state. As such, the United States could better tailor such assistance in local contexts that serve the people who need it most while at the same time achieving its strategic objectives.
