President Putin made three foundational assumptions in launching his war against Ukraine that should have been correct but were not. First, Putin assumed the invasion of Ukraine would be a quick and easy fight. Second, he assumed the world would denounce the invasion but tacitly allow it. Third, Putin assumed the war would deter NATO expansion.
In many ways, today’s fight against ISIL is another chapter in the fight that we had against AQ and ISI in 2006–2007. ISIL’s success today is based on a combination of factors that includes ineffective governance, success on the ground, and sophisticated propaganda. Although it does not seem likely that U.S. and its allies will commit ground combat troops to fight ISIL in Iraq, there are things that can be done to help Iraqis defeat ISIL.
Before the physical battle to defeat ISIL begins, the narrative surrounding that fight must be clearly delineated and thoughtfully parsed. The first step in defeating ISIL is to deny it statehood. The second step in defeating ISIL is to ensure that the states of Iraq and Syria have strong, legitimate, and sovereign governments — whether we like them or not.
