With Russia’s constitutional reform, Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin is likely to remain in power until 2036. Discussion of what a post-Putin Russia will look like has been limited, and it is difficult to guess. Russia is a nuclear-capable actor and potential internal fracturing could be less than ideal. As such, the United States should once again place greater emphasis on a concept known as soft power as a means to influence Russian perceptions towards a more pro-Western Democratic mindset. If the United States can successfully influence Russian perceptions through soft power, one might see a less corrupt and more democratic Russia, and perhaps a peaceful transition of power in the post-Putin future.
At this point, the United States must recognize that Russians, in general, are content with Putin as their tsar, and should instead develop and implement a strategy in anticipation of the post-Putin era. Putin's move to change the Russian Constitution and consolidate power without serious challenge, especially during the period of the COVID-19 medical crisis, indicate a further shift away from democracy towards the establishment of a pseudo-tsardom. Putin won the nationwide constitutional reformation vote, which reinforces his party’s legitimacy through popular support. The referendum secured Putin’s position until 2036. Putin will be 87 years old before the end of that 2036 term. Domestically, Putin has widespread support and puppet-like control of Russia's legal systems to pass measures designed to crush opposition. Although some sources indicate a significant drop in his approval ratings, from 68% in December of 2019 to 59% in May of 2020, there is still enough popular support for Putin to continue his political maneuvers with his party's backing for the time being. The United States invited Putin to a G7 event in lieu of the now canceled 2020 G7 Summit. The invitation indicates a level of political stability for Putin. He is likely to weather a drop in approval and continue running Russia.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev before a meeting with members of the government in January 2020 (Dmitry Astakhov/AFP)
Putin's problem as Russia's tsar is that he does not have a successor, nor has there been any strong indication of who his successor might be, thus presenting a serious security concern for the United States as it contemplates Russia’s post-Putin stability. Putin has been able to exert control over his oligarchs, his military, and his own near-perfect narrative through state-controlled media. He can consistently weather attacks on his image. He continues to push his narrative regardless of scandal, such as the 2012 anti-Putin protest that drew approximately 20,000 people and the 2014 Sochi Olympics where official Russian anti-LGBT+ attitudes and policies resurfaced in worldview.
Once Putin, the strong autocratic character, is no longer in Russia's picture, it will create several power vacuums. There are a plethora of possible outcomes for a post-Putin Russia, with predictions ranging anywhere from a democratic transition of power to Russia's fragmentation from internal conflict. The plausibility of these scenarios vary widely. The next Russian leader might not have the same charisma as Putin, a potentially problematic outcome for the United States because a power vacuum could create destabilizing violence in the region. Then again, it is possible to have a Yeltsin-like transition of power. The event may be too distant to accurately predict what a post-Putin Russia will look like, but this does not mean that the United States should not have this discussion now and take proactive steps to positively impact the future of the people and the state of Russia.
The United States should consider emphasizing soft power diplomacy to develop a strong relationship with the Russian public, allowing the United States to position itself in anticipation of the post-Putin era. Even though the Post-Putin era is sixteen years away, successful soft power influence takes time to shape a generation’s perception of the United States. Joseph Nye put to paper the concept of soft power in the early 1990s, discussing the importance of achieving political goals through attraction rather than coercion. He believed that rather than relying on the threat of force, states could exert influence by merely appealing to the public of other states. Soft power requires an actor to play the long game, positing that with enough time the influencer builds a strong enough reputation to sway public opinion and support his or her policies or ideas.
The United States needs a flexible strategy to defend itself with the Russian public from Putin's continuous disinformation campaigns, all while reigniting its soft power influence, previously used during the Cold War. The United States can look back on its success in countering Russian disinformation from the 1940s to the early 1990s while working to develop a new and stronger soft power strategy. Ladislav Bittman, a former Czech intelligence officer and defector, discussed Soviet disinformation methodology and how it was used. The Soviet Union relied on disinformation campaigns to erode global American perception to disintegrate American influence in the Soviet Bloc. Likewise, the United States has historically launched several campaigns to erode Soviet influence.
Regardless of the Soviet Union’s subterfuge, the United States decided to continue relations and use soft power in its counterattack. One historically successful example of the use of American soft power, part of a comprehensive counter-Soviet political warfare program operationalized in the early Cold War, was to target the Soviet population and introduce them to aspects of American pop culture. The United States targeted the Soviet population through radio networks like Voice of America, playing American jazz and introducing American culture into the Soviet population. The 1959 American National Exhibition in Moscow was designed to target average Soviet citizens and allow them a peek into what average Americans enjoyed and the quality of their consumer products. This exhibition created the famous kitchen debate between President Richard Nixon and Soviet President Nikita Khrushchev, where each respective party debated the merits of capitalism versus communism. While this debate was controversial, the Soviet Union was concerned about the messages reaching its population, in contrast to the United States. Transparency with its general population compared to that of the Soviet Union was an advantage for the United States.
Richard Nixon makes a point during an argument with Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev, Moscow,, July 25, 1959. (Howard Sochurek/The LIFE Picture Collection)
Historically, information technology was not as omnipresent for the average Russian as it was for an American, and it created an information Iron Curtain around Russia; that imbalance is disappearing, taking with it one of Putin’s advantages. Despite modern Russian censorship practices, it is easier today for the United States to influence the Russian population through social media and exert soft power. Today, there are approximately seventy million active Russian social media users, about 49% of the total Russian population. The Central Intelligence Agency places that number closer to one hundred and eight million users. This number can be expected to grow, as Russia experienced a 3.3% growth of total active users in 2019. Russia’s growth in social media usage corresponds to the growing availability of internet access. In 2012, 44.3% of Russians had internet access, and as of 2017 that figure grew to 76.4%. The Russian government continues to implement measures to censor content, such as the 2013 laws to blacklist sites deemed extremist. Even with these laws, the average Russian has easier access today to social media platforms like Youtube and Instagram. These platforms act as a launch point for the United States to circumvent Putin’s control and continue its soft power campaign. Unlike Putin, the United States does not need to rely on disinformation tactics. The United States needs to continuously support its information technology industry, and let the Muscovite Twitter revolution handle the rest.
Education and democratic transparency are the United States' best weapons in fighting disinformation and general corruption.
While the United States exerts soft power abroad, it must continue to strengthen itself in anticipation for Putin’s response. Today, Russia's disinformation campaign requires the United States to mobilize at the societal level to develop resiliency. Regarding Russian disinformation, on July 10, 2019, Alina Polyakova, director of the Project on Global Democracy and Emerging Technology at Brookings, testified at the House Committee on Appropriations. She laid out a comprehensive plan that highlighted the importance of democratic transparency, accountability, and counter-disinformation operations. Education and democratic transparency are the United States' best weapons in fighting disinformation and general corruption. Furthermore, developing these democratic systems can spearhead American influence abroad.
While the United States fights disinformation domestically, it can pressure economically Russia's Western European trade partners to play a more substantial role in fighting corruption and weakening Russia's long-term position. Businesses are hesitant to invest in Russia due to rampant cronyism and corruption. While it is challenging to enforce anti-corruption measures in Russia, the United States can place increased pressure on some of Russia's largest natural gas importers; the various members of the European Union. Instead of relying on sanctions, the United States can put economic pressure on Russia through renegotiating with the European Union and its member states, especially Germany, which is one of the largest importers of natural gas from Russia. By providing an alternative cheaper market, and setting transparency mechanisms, the United States can force Russia to play by Western Europe's rules. This is a hybrid method of soft power, as the United States would not be using sanctions as a means of economic pressure, and instead, would be using a method of soft coercion through anti-corruption. Setting systems of accountability would expose Russian corruption and potentially force Putin's hand. Putin would not be able to blame sanctions as a cause of economic hardship, thus strengthening Russian pro-democratic and anti-corruption movements. Forcing Russia to hold itself accountable to a Western, American-backed standard is essential in slowly changing Russia's economic culture. It is a slow process and it will take years, but the United States must have a healthy economic relationship with the Russian public in anticipation of the post-Putin era.
A healthy economic relationship between the United States and Russia will allow the United States to improve the Russian public's perception of the United States. One humorous example of the United States' use of soft power was the McDonald's craze in the Soviet Union. When McDonald's first opened in Moscow on January 31, 1990, thousands of Muscovites stood in line for Western fast food. It was a culture shock for the Soviet Union. The workers at McDonald's were students who were multilingual and had strong customer service skills. Russians were not accustomed to this level of hospitality and service. Like the kitchen debate, this is an example of American culture that pierced the Soviet curtain, captivating the Russian public and inspiring in them a desire for more. In this case, the United States was able to exert soft power influence with minimal risk.
Likewise, as we live in the digital age, our focus should be on Russia's younger Putin generation, as they will bear the brunt of the fallout from a post-Putin Russia. Approximately 43% of the Russian population is between the ages of 25-54. Post-Putin Russia will face a disproportionate number of pensioners, while Russia already struggles to support its elderly population. It is not in the United States' interest to have a nuclear armed Russia in severe economic turmoil with potentially high youth unemployment, as that has historically led to internal violence that can quickly escalate. Furthermore, Russia's potentially dark turn invites more extreme nationalistic parties to emerge, a clear security risk to the United States and its NATO partners. Therefore, through developing responsible economic relations, helping Russia move away from an almost solely carbon energy export economy, and supporting Russia's more pro-democratic reform younger population, the United States can avoid the fallout of a destabilized post-Putin Russia.
Russian youth (Sergei Vedyashkin/Moskva News Agency)
A potential tip of the spear for reigniting healthy social and economic relations with Russia is using the COVID-19 pandemic as common ground. While the United States sent ventilators as part of a 5.6 million dollar aid package to Russia, it did not have as strong a political effect as Russia's original gesture toward the United States. However, COVID-19 will have a profound effect on Russia's youth and its young professional population, as the aftermath may comprehensively change society. The COVID-19 pandemic and its debilitating impact on Russian society is an opportunity for the United States to build a positive relationship with Russia in the future through the use of a variety of soft power tactics. Therefore, it is essential to reshape the Russian perception of the United States, and it can start through partnership programs to fight COVID-19. With COVID-19 as such a fundamental human threat, it provides the most basic common ground between the two countries.
Yes, Russia commits hostile acts against the United States through disinformation, but that is today's fight. Post-Putin Russia is a long-lead concern for the United States, especially when the main young Russian population of 2036 will have grown up knowing only Putin’s rule and his narrative. Soft power is a forgotten tool in America’s toolkit that should be revisited as a means to carefully and slowly win the hearts and minds of Russia’s new generation. With patience and a comprehensive long-term strategy, the United States is more likely to witness a smooth, non-violent transition of Russia into a more legitimately democratic actor within the international community.
Alexander Grinberg is an officer in the U.S. Army. The views expressed in this article are the author's alone, and do not reflect those of the U.S. Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.
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Header Image: A logo hangs on display outside a McDonald's food restaurant in Moscow, Russia. (Andrey Rudakov/Getty)