President Putin made three foundational assumptions in launching his war against Ukraine that should have been correct but were not. First, Putin assumed the invasion of Ukraine would be a quick and easy fight. Second, he assumed the world would denounce the invasion but tacitly allow it. Third, Putin assumed the war would deter NATO expansion.
Theory comes first. It informs strategy, and strategies derive from theory through deduction. As more strategies are developed, induction can lead to new theory in an iterative loop. When strategic thinkers conflate strategy with theory or give it precedence over theory, the relationship becomes dysfunctional.
