What is the goal of intelligence? There are two possible schools of thought in response to this question. The one familiar to every military or government analyst is that intelligence should tell truth to power regardless of consequences. This aloof philosophy regards the objectivity of intelligence as paramount given the professional duty to the national security of the nation it serves. In business, though, a different school of thought is much more pervasive.
President Putin made three foundational assumptions in launching his war against Ukraine that should have been correct but were not. First, Putin assumed the invasion of Ukraine would be a quick and easy fight. Second, he assumed the world would denounce the invasion but tacitly allow it. Third, Putin assumed the war would deter NATO expansion.
