Alessandra Nisch
Putin’s Wars: Testing Boyd’s Strategy of ...

President Putin made three foundational assumptions in launching his war against Ukraine that should have been correct but were not. First, Putin assumed the invasion of Ukraine would be a quick and easy fight. Second, he assumed the world would denounce the invasion but tacitly allow it. Third, Putin assumed the war would deter NATO expansion.

Putin’s Wars: Testing Boyd’s Strategy of Applied Friction

Conflict

History Points to the Most Probable Conclusion in Ukraine: Scorched Earth or Regime Change

History Points to the Most Probable Conclusion in Ukraine: Scorched Earth or Regime Change

Russia and Ukraine are locked in a war that has outlasted any realistic forecast. Why are these nations still engaged in a conflict that is so detrimental to both sides? Because these two countries have a shared history that includes scorched earth and the wilful destruction of personal property rather than forfeiture, the most likely outcome is either complete victory for one party, or regime change that brings the war to a rapid conclusion. Over a thousand years of invasions, occupation, and suffering have influenced the psyches of both the Ukrainians and Russians in ways that make only two outcomes likely.

Conflict Realism: A New School of Thought for Examining the Future of Armed Conflict

Conflict Realism: A New School of Thought for Examining the Future of Armed Conflict

Not formalized in existing literature, four basic schools of thought exist in the conflict and defense studies fields. These camps include the Futurist, Traditionalist, Institutionalist, and Conflict Realism. Each of these camps provides value to the study of armed conflict. Yet, the over-reliance on one camp over others creates unhelpful distortions and implications that can impede the student and practitioner of war’s ability to think clearly about war and warfare. A holistic view of armed conflict, which takes into consideration all four camps, is needed to help overcome unhelpful distortions and find the essence of the problems in armed conflict.

When Predicting the Future, Remember, You’re Probably Wrong

When Predicting the Future, Remember, You’re Probably Wrong

History remains the best guide to predicting the future — but such predictions are still more likely than not to be wrong. Those who postulate and prognosticate on the future of warfare, and those consuming their output, would be well served by keeping this in mind. Such is the nature of predicting the future writ large, and this applies in the realm of warfare.

The Central Idea of Conflict: Will

The Central Idea of Conflict: Will

Warriors fight in ceaseless bouts of mental combat to win in conflicts involving competing wills. These fights occur in multiple domains, against clever adversaries using asymmetric means, including information and cognition at several levels. This position argues for acceptance of a thought—the right people and organizations must purposefully invest in improving the education of our best and brightest to raise these young and old minds to a high-level of thought.

#Reviewing The Dragons and the Snakes

#Reviewing The Dragons and the Snakes

Kilcullen’s book is of value, especially for readers who are new to today’s complex battlefield. His use of Snakes and Dragons as a heuristic model is pithy, and his exploration of the evolution of insurgent and terrorist groups is fascinating. David Kilcullen is an erudite, multi-disciplinary scholar with astute observations. Nevertheless, Dragons and Snakes is not on the same level as his earlier books.

Simplicity Before Complexity: Conceptualizing Long-Term Military Competitions

Simplicity Before Complexity: Conceptualizing Long-Term Military Competitions

Are U.S. goals vis-à-vis opposing powers tied to an identifiable definition of defeating an opponent? Do U.S. goals account for a clear relationship between ends and means, and the finite nature of both? If the answer to any of these questions is no, and if therefore the nature of the competition cannot be coherently explained, then competition has likely passed form reasonable idea to a meaningless buzzword.

Ceasefires in Syria: A Post-Mortem

Ceasefires in Syria: A Post-Mortem

Policymakers and diplomats view ceasefires as a positive step toward peace because they present the conditions under which trust can be engendered between opposing sides in the Syrian civil war. Some academics have even found statistical evidence supporting this claim. But of the 44 ceasefires agreed to throughout Syria since 2012, only five preceded rebels surrendering, and only seven ceasefires in Syria have endured to the present. The remaining 32 ceasefires have failed. A survey of the failed ceasefires provides three logical pathways from ceasefires to offensives: leverage, buying time, and collapse of cooperation.

#Reviewing My War Gone By, I Miss It So

#Reviewing My War Gone By, I Miss It So

My War Gone By, I Miss It So is a story about Loyd’s struggle of emotional turmoil and his abuse of alcohol and heroin becoming the solution. It identifies with a generation that has experienced the horrors of war while figuring out their place when they return to their old world and coping with the enduring memories. His candid struggles with drug addiction offer the perfect companion to Loyd’s struggle with his addiction to war. The deep, personal struggles when home, and how alcohol soon moved to heroin as the coping mechanism to process his emotions, allow the reader to feel the internal struggles and conflict. This emotional conflict is not unique to Loyd. His ability to be so candid, and describe his journey with such clarity, pulls the reader into a shadowy world many are unfamiliar with and lack the ability to comprehend. Beyond the field of war, the book will additionally relate to readers who struggle with substance abuse as a coping mechanism for their respective problems.  

Scarcity as a Source of Violent Conflict

Scarcity as a Source of Violent Conflict

Scarcity should both interest and scare strategists and policy makers. It refers to a mismatch between the demand for and availability of a commodity. It helps drive free markets, and informs value. But strategists and policy makers should contemplate it because scarcity, both real and perceived, drives much of human conflict, and it has reared its head again, this time in Yemen.

War Games: What Will Be Our Next Conflict?

War Games: What Will Be Our Next Conflict?

If conventional war was suspect prior to the GWOT, the possible outcome of the Crimea conflict could almost cement the impossibility of such a war occurring again in the future. It may sound sick when I say that this current dynamic is actually a healthy exercise, as it should provide our government with a wake-up call concerning what a possible conventional war could look like.