American policy makers must revisit some of their most basic grand strategic assumptions, especially the ones it makes about itself.

Introduction

 As the global pandemic recedes, the U.S. emerges to a very different international power dynamic. Strategic assumptions held by America's political and military leaders, rooted in the premise of a world seeking intrusive U.S. leadership and dominance, may no longer be valid.[1] Societies have adapted and economies have been profoundly reshaped, exacerbating old tensions and exposing new challenges, which is testing America’s ability to respond and cope. This change is especially true for the U.S., where large social, political, and economic movements have coincided with, and been exacerbated by, the pandemic. Created after the end of the Cold War and revised after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, America bases its strategic outlook on the grand strategic assumptions of U.S. political, military, economic, and social dominance, combined with an assumption of domestic prosperity and unity, that may no longer be valid. To thrive and survive in this new world, the U.S. needs to revise its old grand strategic assumptions, specifically ones about who it is and how it acts in the world.

To do this, American policy makers must revisit some of their most basic grand strategic assumptions, especially the ones it makes about itself. By understanding what it assumes about itself, who it is in the world, and how it acts within that world, the U.S. can reframe what it wants to and can feasibly achieve in domestic and international affairs. To challenge these basic assumptions, U.S. policy makers must first determine, solidify, and validate what constitutes American core values before reexamining what the nation’s vital interests are.

According to the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, seven assumptions underpinned U.S. grand strategy since the end of the Cold War, to include: 1) the maintenance of military primacy, 2) a strong network of allies that export security, 3) the ability to integrate challengers into the U.S.-led system, 4) access to a favorable international system, 5) an end to great power military conflict, 6) the continued spread of democracy, and 7) using technological change to advance U.S. interests.[2]

These assumptions are under constant pressure as the world no longer fits the context that produced them. They reflect a by-gone era that existed in the immediate aftermath of the Cold War. The strategic environment has shifted from a unipolar to multipolar order and the U.S. has begun redefining itself and its place in the world, both domestically and internationally. As a result of these two changes, these seven assumptions become less reflective of reality and must be reassessed.

Coherent and relevant strategy can only be crafted by understanding what people value. What a society values can change over time, and this change must be recognized to understand how an actor will act and react in the world.

To realign and revise America’s grand strategic assumptions, the U.S. must first recognize that its image of the post-COVID world must shift. COVID-19, along with a polarized political and social climate and a recovering economy, has placed pressure on how the U.S. views and defines its core values. The reshaping of the nation and how it views its most fundamental values and beliefs will have profound impacts on how the nation formulates strategy, makes assumptions, and acts within the world.

Strategy, particularly grand strategy, is concerned with understanding and exploiting meaning. People rarely fight over objects and places; rather, they fight over the value and meaning that objects and places represent.[3] Coherent and relevant strategy can only be crafted by understanding what people value. What a society values can change over time, and this change must be recognized to understand how an actor will act and react in the world.

Assumptions are made in the absence of evidence and represent general beliefs about the environment, other actors, and one’s self. They allow a nation to envision how the international environment will respond to its actions. Strategic assumptions, like any assumption, must exist with certain foundations of fact to be relevant. For an assumption to be accepted as truth, it must be recognized as an assumption and an internal logic must exist to provide a foundation and broad acceptance.

America’s Core Values

Values are those beliefs that are held in the highest regard and guide perceptions, decisions, and structure actions.[4] They help to determine principles, inform behaviors, set norms, and provide an impetus for how people view themselves and society. COVID-19 and recent unrest have had profound impacts on the American population socially, economically and politically. The pandemic has deeply affected society, causing many Americans to  reconsider  its core values. This can be seen in debates over vaccination, the role of the police, political fallout from the presidential election, the relationship between man and climate change, and economic disparities amongst certain communities. The pandemic did not cause these issues, but the symptoms and effects of these issues have been amplified by the social changes caused by the pandemic. All of these issues touch America’s core values because they are all viewed and acted upon from the lens of those values and how those values are socially interpreted.

Before the U.S. can effectively reframe its grand strategic assumptions, it must validate its core values at the political and social level, so that it can then examine its vital interests.

From primary American political documents, one can surmise or identify twelve historic core values. These are: freedom, liberty, equality, individual rights, human rights, security, progress, democracy, mobility, prosperity, justice, and free enterprise.[5] Before the U.S. can effectively reframe its grand strategic assumptions, it must validate its core values at the political and social level, so that it can then examine its vital interests. This must occur, prior to examining assumptions, because a person’s or organization’s beliefs will impact how that person or organization views, processes, and reacts to a situation.

American Vital Interests

U.S. Joint Doctrine defines interests as “those fundamental, enduring conditions a state chooses to pursue.”[6] Vital interests are described as those things that people and organizations are willing to sacrifice for, such as security, safety, prosperity, and preservation.[7] To be vital, these interests must be tied to a country’s core values, which means that how a group defines security, safety, prosperity, and preservation will be different for each culture, as will how people justify violence and sacrifice. Causes such as religion, nationalism, fear, honor, and interests are manifestations of national and cultural values.

U.S. capstone strategy documents have institutionalized a broad consensus on what constitutes the country’s vital interests. The National Security Strategy and the Interim National Security Strategic Guidance designate several vital interests: protect the security of the American people; protect the homeland and the American way of life; promote American prosperity and opportunity; preserve peace through strength; advance American influence; and realize and defend the democratic values at the heart of the American way of life.[8] 

By design, or not, America's core values have shaped how it perceives its vital national interests, which in turn has dictated what assumptions the nation makes about itself and its environment.

In 1996, a commission of former government officials conducted a study of American vital interests. This commission identified five key interests: (1) prevent, deter, and reduce the threat of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons attacks on the United States; (2) prevent the emergence of a hostile hegemon in Europe or Asia; (3) prevent the emergence of a hostile major power on U.S. borders or in control of the seas; (4) prevent the catastrophic collapse of major global systems; and (5) ensure the survival of U.S. allies.[9] It is in this document that one begins to see ties to the pre-COVID set of strategic assumptions, outlined by the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, specifically those that presume America’s role and image in the world. For instance, four of the five vital interests start with prevent, assuming a U.S.military primacy, the ability to bring challengers into the U.S. led system, and access to a favorable global system, backed by a growth in democracies and a network of allies.

From these sources, one can surmise seven historic vital interests of the United States. They are: security of the homeland and its people, stability of the western hemisphere and its societies, prosperity of the American people, defense and promotion of democratic and humanitarian values, protection of allies and partners, maintenance of a balance of power in Europe and Asia, and continued access to the global commons. When looked at closely, one can see the influence of the twelve identified core values in this list, and in the ones presented above. By design, or not, America's core values have shaped how it perceives its vital national interests, which in turn has dictated what assumptions the nation makes about itself and its environment.

Grand Strategic Assumptions

Grand strategy is ultimately about relevant advantage against a competitor or in an environment. This means that one actor has an advantage, in some way, over another. Grand strategy is the exception, as it does not focus on any single actor or location; rather, it provides a theory of overall or general success for a country. It is in this inclusive manner that grand strategy guides all other policies and strategies. This is why grand strategy is about relevant advantage: it seeks domestic and international relevance, or logic and coherence to its environment.

By validating its core values and vital interests, policy makers can consciously address central assumptions they make about the U.S. and the world. These assumptions should recognize the world as it is and not as the U.S. would like it to be. These assumptions should not align against a specific situation, but can be tailored to any number of actors or locations for regional policy or strategy development. For instance, an assumption of continued economic growth underpins political, economic, social and military power that the U.S. plans to use over specific environments and actors. This assumption is underpinned by another assumption, that the U.S. will remain competitive on world markets and have a properly trained and educated workforce.     

Grand strategic assumptions must find a basis in some form of national sense of self to be viable. They must be based not only on the goals of a country but also on what that country stands for and values.

Correlating or rationalizing values to interests can enable the U.S. to make sound assumptions about the future of the strategic environment by grounding those assumptions in elements of certainty. Specifically, when making assumptions about itself, values and interest- based grand strategic assumptions will give U.S. policymakers certainty and flexibility. Moreover, such a process would improve the strategic effectiveness of the U.S. by reliably centering the U.S. on its values, enabling flexibility for situational and environmental context, and providing a reliable basis for strategic action.

Some values and interest-based grand strategic assumptions about the future could be: 1) that America will remain an attractive place for immigration and education; 2) that America will be a political and economic power that attracts allies and partners; 3) that America will defend a world order based on equal access, open markets, and rules; 4) that America will defend other nations who share its values; and 5) that America will continue to champion the human and economic rights of individuals and nations. These five assumptions not only link with America’s core values, vital interests, and what it seeks to achieve in the world, but they also can be applied and acted on in many different locations around the globe.

Grand strategic assumptions must find a basis in some form of national sense of self to be viable. They must be based not only on the goals of a country but also on what that country stands for and values.

These assumptions also allow for America to make choices in crafting a grand strategy, establishing policies, budgets, and priorities, and driving national conversation. They find relevance within the post-COVID environment and can enable the U.S. and its allies and partners to craft grand strategies that enhance policy aims. These assumptions can also be monitored for accuracy and trends. Since an assumption is accepted as true, assumptions should be purposeful and have a means to prove or deny them.

Grand strategic assumptions must find a basis in some form of national sense of self to be viable. They must be based not only on the goals of a country but also on what that country stands for and values. Grand strategic logic is formed from the linking and interplay of core values, vital interests, and the conditions a nation seeks to create, while remaining grounded in the strategic environment. The post-COVID world will present novel challenges, requiring the U.S. president and his top policymakers to reinvent the relationship between the country’s enduring values and its vital interests to the demands of the evolving domestic and international environment. America must validate and acknowledge its core values and vital interests before it can determine what it assumes about itself and the world and before it can seek to establish any realistic goals.

Chad Anthony Buckel is a Marine Infantry Officer. The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and do not represent those of the Department of Defense, the Department of the Navy, or the U.S. Marine Corps.

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Header Image: Secretary Blinken Signs a Declaration and Strategic Plan on Arctic Cooperation 20 May, 2021 (State Department photo by Ron Przysucha/ Public Domain).

Notes:

[1] Hal Brands, Peter Feaver, William Inboden, and Paul D. Miller, Critical Assumptions and America’s Grand Strategy (Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, 2017), 9.

[2] Ibid, 11-21.

[3] Colin S. Gray, Strategy and Defense Planning (Oxford, United Kingdom: Oxford University Press, 2018), 144.

[4] Sarah Sutler-Cohen, Core Values: What they are, why they matter, and how to define yours, accessed on 18 June 2021, (https://medium.com/@scoutcoaching/core-values-what-they-are-why-they-matter-and-how-to-define-yours-93164383eada).

[5] “The U.S. Declaration of Independence,” National Archives, accessed March 29, 2021, https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/declaration-transcript; “The U.S. Constitution,” National Constitution Center, accessed March 29, 2021, https://constitutioncenter.org/interactive-constitution/full-text; Office of the President of the United States, National Security Strategy of the United States, 2017, (Washington, DC: Government Publishing Office, 2017), 41; Office of the President of the United States, Interim National Security Strategic Guidance, 2021 (Washington, DC: Government Publishing Office, 2021), Front Letter.

[6] Joint Doctrine Note 1-18, Strategy, vii.

[7]  Joint Doctrine Note 1-18, vii.

[8] Office of the President of the United States, National Security Strategy of the United States, 2-4; Office of the President of the United States, Interim National Security Strategic Guidance, 9.

[9] The Commission on America’s National Interests, America’s National Interests (Cambridge, MA: Center for Science and International Affairs, 1996), 3.